A country of 3.8 million people has somehow been to a World Cup final and a third-place playoff in the same decade. Croatia's run is the single most improbable story in international football, and the engine behind it has been the same man wearing the No. 10 shirt since 2008. At the 2026 World Cup, Luka Modrić will be a few months past his 41st birthday. This is, by almost any definition, his last dance.
The generation question
Every Croatia preview eventually has to deal with the same thing: Modrić, Ivan Perišić, Marcelo Brozović, Andrej Kramarić — the spine of the 2018 and 2022 squads is held together by veterans who are almost too old to make sense at this level. Zlatko Dalić, still in charge after navigating two World Cups and a Euro, has not been able to fully replace any of them. The next generation has produced flashes — Joško Gvardiol is a genuine top-five centre-back in the world, Luka Sučić has settled into a creative midfield role at Real Sociedad, and Petar Sučić has emerged as a real Brozović successor — but the bridge from old to new is still being built while the team is being asked to compete.
Modrić, one more time
Modrić has spent the post-2022 cycle quietly being one of La Liga's best central midfielders again. He plays fewer minutes than he used to, his pressing radius has shrunk, but the passing remains ridiculous and his composure in central midfield against a press remains the most important single trait in this squad. Dalić has built the team around the assumption that for 60-70 minutes a game, Modrić will run midfield, after which a younger leg comes in.
What will be different this tournament is the emotional weight. Modrić has confirmed this will be his final World Cup. Croatian football's most important player is on a clock. Whether that becomes a fuel or a burden — for him, for the squad — will probably decide how far they go.
The defensive bedrock
Gvardiol is the reason Croatia can dream beyond the group stage. The Manchester City defender is comfortable on either side of a back four, can play left-back when Dalić wants extra width, and is one of the best ball-progressing centre-backs in Europe. Around him, Josip Šutalo at Ajax has stabilised and Josip Stanišić at Bayern Munich provides a versatile full-back option. Goalkeeper Dominik Livaković has the kind of penalty-shootout pedigree Croatia have built tournaments on — both deep runs in 2018 and 2022 involved multiple shootout wins.
Where the goals have to come from
This is the chronic problem. Croatia has not had a world-class centre-forward since the Davor Šuker era. Kramarić remains the most reliable option, but he is 35 and built more for combination play than for being the one who finishes everything. Bruno Petković has the size to bully Round of 16 opponents but is wildly streaky. Marco Pašalić has emerged as a real threat from the wing.
The team's actual goal-creation engine is Modrić and the midfield; Croatia has historically converted by dragging opponents into long possessions, then springing one of the wingers in behind. Expect the same plan in 2026. If it works, they go deep. If they meet the kind of team that can press them in their own half — France, Spain, Germany on a good night — they could be exposed.
The draw and the realistic ceiling
Croatia enters as a Pot 2 seed in the new 12-group format. That means they avoid the very top teams (Argentina, France, Spain, Brazil, England) in the group stage but face the difficult problem of likely meeting one of them in the Round of 32 or 16. The tournament's expansion to 48 teams adds an extra knockout round, which on paper benefits a tactically organised side with a midfield that can manage tempo — that is exactly the Croatia profile.
Three realistic outcomes, from best to worst:
- Semi-final. The Modrić swansong scenario. Requires a kind group draw, one penalty shootout win, and Gvardiol staying upright.
- Quarter-final. The middle path, and probably the most likely. They beat a Round of 16 opponent and lose narrowly to a top-three side.
- Round of 16 exit. The downside case if the centre-forward question gets exposed early or if Modrić cannot give them 90 minutes.
What this tournament means for Croatian football
The harder question is what happens after Modrić retires. The Croatian system — small population, exceptional academies, almost all top players going abroad young — is fragile. Losing the talisman and several of the elder spine at once could see them slip from "go deep at every tournament" to "competitive but unremarkable" for a cycle. Dalić's job between 2026 and the next Euro is essentially to manage that transition.
For all the World Cup match dates and live updates, head to soccer scores on Scorelisto. More team previews and tournament analysis are on the blog.
FAQ
Is the 2026 World Cup Luka Modrić's last? He has confirmed it will be his final World Cup. He may continue at club level for a season or two, but international retirement is expected immediately after.
How is it possible for Croatia to keep doing this? A combination of an outstanding domestic academy system, players moving to top European leagues very young, and a remarkable generation born in the 1985-95 window. It is not a model that scales — most football observers do not expect it to repeat.
Who is Croatia's best young player? Joško Gvardiol at centre-back is the highest-rated young Croatian player and one of the best defenders in world football.
Are Croatia favourites in their group? Likely yes, if seeded in Pot 2. They tend to grind out group stages and reach knockout rounds even when they have not looked at their best.
What's Croatia's biggest weakness? Centre-forward. A reliable goalscorer would change the ceiling of this team completely.