Japan have arrived at every World Cup since 1998. They have left in the Round of 16 four times and earlier than that twice. Every tournament starts with the same question, posed slightly differently: is this the year the Samurai Blue finally cross over? This squad, managed by Hajime Moriyasu and built around a generation that came of age in the top five European leagues, looks the closest to a real answer yet.
The group: Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia
Group F is not the easiest draw in the world but it is far from the hardest. Netherlands are the seeded team and the most obvious favourites, ranked seventh in the world and stacked with Premier League and Bundesliga regulars. Sweden returned to the World Cup stage after missing 2022 and brought a more physical, more direct version of themselves with them. Tunisia are the fourth team and a predictable opponent — well-drilled, defensively organised, light on attacking firepower.
Japan's opener is the one to circle. The Netherlands match on June 14 is the only fixture in which Japan are objectively underdogs, and a result there changes the colour of the rest of the group. Win or draw and a top-two finish is almost guaranteed. Lose and the Tunisia game becomes a do-or-die.
The squad in three lines
Wataru Endo of Liverpool is captain and the metronome in midfield. Takefusa Kubo of Real Sociedad is the headline talent and the most press-resistant winger Japan have ever produced. The back line is built around Ko Itakura and Takehiro Tomiyasu, with the 39-year-old Yuto Nagatomo set to become the first Asian player ever to appear at five World Cups.
Zion Suzuki is the No. 1 in goal, a relatively new presence at senior level but already the clear pick after a strong domestic season. Daichi Kamada, Junya Ito, Ritsu Doan and Ao Tanaka fill out a midfield that is genuinely deep, and Yuito Suzuki has emerged as the kind of late-tournament substitute every coach wants.
The absences that hurt
Two are worth noting. Kaoru Mitoma was the engine of the left flank for years and has been ruled out of the tournament; Takumi Minamino is also unavailable. Mitoma is the bigger loss in pure footballing terms, but the squad has rebuilt around it. Doan slides over from the right, Kubo plays in a freer role behind the striker, and Ito takes the orthodox wide spot. The shape is different, but the firepower is still there.
What Japan actually do well
Two things, the same two things they have done well for fifteen years: press as a unit and counter into space. Moriyasu's side turns a midfield turnover into a shot in five seconds flat when it is working, and the front three of Kubo, Doan and a roving striker are devastating in transition. The matches against Germany and Spain in 2022, both Japanese wins from behind, were the defining showcase of that style at a major tournament.
What they still do not do well is sit on a lead. The 2022 Croatia loss in the Round of 16 — surrendered after going ahead, dragged to penalties, lost in the shootout — was a microcosm of every Japanese knockout exit. They are better at chasing a game than protecting one, and a deep run will require winning a tight one on the back foot.
The Kubo question
For all the talk of generational depth, Japan's ceiling at this World Cup depends almost entirely on Takefusa Kubo. He racked up four goals and eight assists in the AFC qualifying campaign, and his form for Real Sociedad in the back half of the season was the best of his career. He is the only player in the squad who can win a knockout match by himself.
The interesting tactical wrinkle is whether Moriyasu trusts him centrally. Kubo has played both inverted on the right and in the ten role, and Japan look most dangerous when he drifts into the half-spaces between full-back and centre-half. Expect him to start wide against the Netherlands, then move inside in the second half when Japan need a goal.
The realistic ceiling
Japan have never won a World Cup knockout match. Not one. The 48-team format means that the Round of 32 — the new opening knockout round — is a fairer fight than the Round of 16 ever was, and a draw against a Pot 2 European side rather than a Pot 1 giant is genuinely plausible. A quarter-final is on the table for the first time in Japanese football history.
Beyond that is fantasy. To reach a semi-final, Japan would likely need to upset a top-four side, and they have not done it in consecutive matches before. The realistic and frankly historic ceiling here is the last eight.
Three predictions for Japan's tournament
- Group runners-up, behind the Netherlands but ahead of Sweden.
- Kubo finishes with three goal contributions or more across the group stage.
- Round of 32 win, quarter-final exit. The bracket on the Japanese side is friendlier than the European half, but a Pot 1 giant in the last eight ends the run.
FAQ
When does Japan's World Cup 2026 begin? Japan's tournament opener is June 14 against the Netherlands. Live fixtures and scores update in real time on Scorelisto's soccer page.
Has Japan ever reached the quarter-finals of a World Cup? No. Their best finish at any FIFA World Cup is the Round of 16, achieved four times: 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2022.
Who is Japan's manager? Hajime Moriyasu, who has been in charge since 2018 and signed a contract extension through the end of the 2026 tournament cycle.
Where else can I read about other World Cup 2026 contenders? Head over to the Scorelisto blog for previews on France, Brazil, England, Argentina, Senegal and more — plus a daily matchday recap from June 11 through July 19.