With kickoff on June 11 closing in, the question every fan is asking is simple: who actually wins this thing? An expanded 48-team field means more matches, more chaos, and a longer road to the trophy — but the names at the top of the list are familiar. Here is our tiered breakdown of the contenders, from the genuine favourites to the teams who could ruin everyone's bracket.
The favourites
Five teams sit clearly above the rest. France remain the benchmark — depth in every position, tournament experience, and a forward line most nations can only dream of. Brazil arrive with their usual blend of flair and pressure, desperate to end a title drought that now stretches back to 2002. Argentina, the defending champions, carry the swagger of winners even as their golden generation ages. England have the most talented squad they have produced in decades and a 60-year ache to settle. Spain's technical, possession-heavy machine has quietly rebuilt into something genuinely frightening.
The dark horses
Below the favourites is a band of teams capable of a deep run on the right day. Germany are young and rebuilding under Julian Nagelsmann, with Florian Wirtz giving them a focal point. Portugal still have elite attacking talent and a knack for grinding through knockout rounds. The Netherlands are technical and well-drilled. And do not dismiss the USA — host nations historically overperform, and a home crowd across 11 American cities is a real weapon. We covered the home advantage question in detail in our USA preview.
The outside shouts
Then there are the teams who will not be favoured but absolutely could spring a surprise. Belgium's core is experienced and may be playing its last major tournament together. Uruguay are tactically tough and dangerous. Morocco proved in 2022 that a well-organised side with belief can reach a semi-final, and they arrive with that same fearlessness. Croatia keep defying their size and age. In a 48-team format with more knockout rounds, the path to an upset is wider than ever.
Why the expanded format matters
The new structure adds a Round of 32 before the familiar knockout stages, which means even the favourites must navigate more games against motivated opponents. More matches means more fatigue, more chances for a key player to have an off day, and more opportunities for a lower-ranked side to catch fire. Statistically the best teams are still favoured, but the variance is higher than in any previous World Cup. If you want the full breakdown of how qualification works, see our format guide.
The factors that decide it
Three things tend to separate winners from the rest. First, squad depth — the champions almost always survive an injury or a suspension without collapsing. Second, a reliable goalkeeper and a settled defence, because tournaments are won on clean sheets as much as goals. Third, a tournament-defining individual who produces a moment when it matters. France, Brazil and Argentina tick all three boxes most comfortably.
Our prediction
If we have to make a call: France are the team to beat. The blend of depth, experience and game-changing attacking quality is unmatched, and they have the temperament for the latter rounds. Brazil are our pick to push them closest, with Argentina and England rounding out a likely final four. But the beauty of a World Cup is that the script rarely survives contact — a host-nation USA run or a Morocco-style fairytale would surprise no one who watched 2022.
FAQ
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup? France, on the strength of squad depth and tournament pedigree, with Brazil and Argentina close behind.
Can the USA win as hosts? Winning is a stretch, but host nations regularly overperform and a deep run is realistic.
Who is the best dark horse? Germany and Portugal have the talent for a semi-final; Morocco are the wildcard nobody wants to draw.
Follow every match with live scores on Scorelisto as the tournament unfolds.