Every World Cup, the favourites — France, Brazil, Argentina — get the hype. But history shows that the best stories come from the unexpected. From Greece's 2004 Euros to Costa Rica's 2014 World Cup run, the underdogs remind us why we watch. In 2026, several teams have the mix of talent and narrative to go deep and shock the world.
Spain: The technical resurrection
Spain won the last three major tournaments (2008, 2012, Euro 2012). Then they disappeared. But under coach Luis de la Fuente, they have quietly rebuilt. Pedri, Gavi, and a midfield full of technical mastery is back. Their possession play is beautiful again. They are not betting favourites, but if they draw a soft group and face vulnerable defences, they could run to a semi-final. A Spain-Argentina semi-final would be captivating.
Netherlands: The returners
Holland has not won a World Cup since 1974. They made the 2022 final and lost to Argentina. They have Lamine Yamal, Memphis Depay (when fit), and a midfield with serious depth. They are not as flashy as they once were, but they are organised, hard to beat, and dangerous. A quarter-final appearance is realistic; a semi-final run is plausible if they avoid France until late.
Germany: The rebuilding giant
Germany crashed out in 2018 and 2022. They looked broken. But under Julian Nagelsmann, they are rebuilding. Florian Wirtz is a generational talent. The midfield is balanced. The defence is solid. They will not be seeded high, but if they get the right bracket, a semi-final appearance would be symbolic. For a nation with four World Cup titles, a rebuild is always dangerous.
Belgium: One last hurrah
Belgium's golden generation (Hazard, De Bruyne, Witsel) is aging. But De Bruyne is still operating at the highest level. Romelu Lukaku remains a lethal finisher. If they can gel quickly and draw a manageable group, they could surprise. This might be their last chance before a true rebuild begins.
The long shots
Denmark: Always competitive, always organised. If they draw the right group, a quarter-final is possible.
Portugal: Without Ronaldo, but with good depth. A quarter-final is their ceiling.
Mexico: Always dangerous at home. But thin in creative talent. A knockout exit is realistic.
Australia: Overperformer historically. Could surprise once in the group stage but unlikely to go deep.
The narrative angle
Tournaments are won by the best team, but they are remembered for the story. Spain returning to glory? Netherlands finally winning? Germany shocking everyone? These narratives sell tickets, create memes, and define tournaments. The favourites will likely win, but bet on one of these dark horses to make a memorable run.
FAQ
Can Netherlands win the World Cup? Unlikely. But a semi-final is more than plausible.
Is Germany still a threat? With Wirtz and Nagelsmann, yes. But they are not favourites.
Will Belgium make the knockout stage? Probably, if De Bruyne and Lukaku stay healthy.
Which dark horse is most likely to reach a semi-final? Spain or Netherlands. Follow Scorelisto's tournament coverage to track which underdog makes the deepest run.