Two days after Brazil and the USA wrapped up Groups C and D, Germany and the Netherlands try to do the same to E and F. Group E is settled at the top but ugly at the bottom — Ecuador and Ivory Coast are level on points and neither side wants to be a calculator team going into kickoff. Group F has a top seed to decide, a Japan team that has been the surprise of the group stage, and a Sweden side that has to win to stay alive. Here is how Friday June 26 lines up.
The day's fixtures
- Germany v Ecuador · Group E · 12:00 ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- Curaçao v Ivory Coast · Group E · 12:00 ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
- Netherlands v Tunisia · Group F · 18:00 ET · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- Japan v Sweden · Group F · 18:00 ET · Lumen Field, Seattle
FIFA's matchday-three rule holds: the two games inside each group kick off at the same time. Germany and the Netherlands are both through. The third-place equations and a top-seed fight in Group F are very much live.
Germany v Ecuador: Nagelsmann picks his bracket
Germany sit on six points and a top spot they cannot really lose — a draw confirms it, a defeat probably still confirms it on goal difference because their plus-four cushion is larger than the Netherlands can realistically make up. The question is rotation. Julian Nagelsmann admitted before the game that Joshua Kimmich would not start, and Antonio Rüdiger is one yellow away from a suspension that would carry into a quarter-final. Florian Wirtz is the player to watch; if he starts, Germany want this game properly.
Ecuador arrive on three points and the kind of group stage that has the South American press already writing about generational regression. Beat Germany and they are likely through as runners-up. Draw and the Curaçao result decides everything. A loss and they have to hope the best-thirds maths breaks for them — and after Bosnia's rout of Qatar locked one slot, that is now a thinner conversation. Sebastián Beccacece will set up to press in the first fifteen and then sit. He has to find a goal somewhere.
Curaçao v Ivory Coast: the calculator game
The most overlooked fixture of the day might be the one that delivers the biggest twist. Curaçao have been the group's feel-good story — a draw with Ivory Coast in the opener and a near-miss against Germany — and sit on two points. Ivory Coast have two points of their own after the same draw and a stalemate with Ecuador. A win for either side opens a real best-thirds path. A draw probably eliminates them both.
Dick Advocaat has built Curaçao around a compact midfield three and the running of Leandro Bacuna. Ivory Coast are the more talented side on paper — Franck Kessié, Sébastien Haller, Simon Adingra — and have not yet produced a complete game in the group. Whoever blinks first probably wins this. Whoever does not score will go home.
Netherlands v Tunisia: top spot up for grabs
The Netherlands lead Group F on six points after the win over Germany and a comfortable matchday-two job on Tunisia's neighbours. A draw locks top of the group, which is the entire point of the rotation conversation Ronald Koeman has been having all week. Memphis Depay is on a yellow; Frenkie de Jong needs minutes; Xavi Simons is the player Koeman wants fresh for the Round of 32. Expect a team-sheet that splits the difference.
Tunisia sit on a single point and need a win plus a Japan-Sweden decisive result to reach the best-thirds bracket. Sami Trabelsi has put a stable shape on a side that hung tough against the Netherlands and lost narrowly to Japan, and Wahbi Khazri up top is still the most likely source of a goal. They have done enough across the group to leave with credit. They probably do not have enough left to leave with a knockout ticket.
Japan v Sweden: the second-place fight
The match of the day. Japan have four points after the win over Tunisia and a draw against Sweden's opponents in matchday two. Sweden have three after the win over Tunisia and the loss to the Netherlands. The winner finishes second in Group F and earns a Round of 32 spot against the runner-up out of Group E. A draw probably sends Japan through on the head-to-head edge from earlier in the group.
Hajime Moriyasu's side have been built around the speed of Kaoru Mitoma down the left and the running of Takefusa Kubo off the right, with Wataru Endo screening behind. Sweden have rebuilt around Alexander Isak's hold-up play and the long-range threat of Anthony Elanga. If this game opens up, Japan are the side better equipped to win it. If it stays tight, Sweden have the centre-forward who tends to score the one chance that decides the night.
Standings entering Day 16
Group E (two games each):
- Germany 6 pts (through)
- Ecuador 3 pts
- Curaçao 2 pts
- Ivory Coast 2 pts
Group F (two games each):
- Netherlands 6 pts (through)
- Japan 4 pts
- Sweden 3 pts
- Tunisia 1 pt
Three things to watch
- Whether Nagelsmann rotates aggressively. Germany have the cushion, but the players who do not play tonight tell you which side of the bracket they are pointing at. Watch the centre-back pairing; that is where the rest decisions matter most for the next round.
- The Curaçao block. Dick Advocaat has built one of the most stubborn defensive shapes in the tournament. If they hold Ivory Coast to a draw, the best-thirds maths suddenly puts the Caribbean in a place no one had on the bingo card.
- Isak v the Japan press. Sweden's chance is built around getting Alexander Isak isolated on a defender. Japan are going to try to keep him fed nothing. Whichever wins that duel probably wins the night.
FAQ
Are Germany and the Netherlands definitely through? Yes. Both clinched on Matchday 2.
Who advances from Group E if Germany and Ecuador draw? Germany top the group. Ecuador advance as runners-up unless Curaçao or Ivory Coast win by enough to flip the goal-difference tiebreaker, which is unlikely from a starting deficit.
What does Japan need against Sweden? A draw almost certainly puts Japan through on the head-to-head edge and goal difference. A win locks second outright. A loss and they fall to a best-thirds calculation that has just got tighter.
Where can I follow live scores? All four games are tracked on the Scorelisto soccer scores page, and every World Cup preview and recap lives on the Scorelisto blog.