The Golden Boot goes to whoever scores the most. The Golden Ball is harder. It rewards the player who shaped a tournament — not necessarily the top scorer, almost always a player who went deep into the knockouts, and very often the player who lifted the trophy. Ten days from kickoff, here are the names most likely to be on the ballot when accredited journalists vote after the final on July 19.
How the Golden Ball actually gets won
A pattern jumps out of the last fifteen World Cups: with one or two exceptions, the Golden Ball winner came from the team that reached the final. Messi won it in 2022 with Argentina. Modrić won it in 2018 with Croatia, the runners-up. Even when the award has skipped the champion, it has rarely gone past the last four. So the contender list is also a quiet quarter-final prediction.
Tier 1: the obvious names
Three players walk into the conversation without an argument.
Kylian Mbappé (France). The defending finalist losing-the-final Golden Boot winner from Qatar. Twenty-seven years old, in the deepest part of his career arc, and the spearhead of a French side that almost everyone has in the top three favourites. If France make the semi-finals, he will be in the top two of every ballot.
Vinícius Júnior (Brazil). Brazil's tactical identity now runs through him. He has finished top three in the Ballon d'Or; he has been the best player on the best club side in Europe. A deep Brazilian run and Vinícius scores in the knockouts wins this award easily.
Jude Bellingham (England). Two seasons of his career into Real Madrid, twenty-two years old, the midfield axis of an England squad that has more first-team quality than at any point in the last sixty years. The ceiling is enormous.
Tier 2: the path-of-least-resistance pick
A few names that win it if their team peaks.
Lamine Yamal (Spain). If Spain win, he wins. He is eighteen, plays like he is twenty-eight, and has the rare combination of end product and rhythm-disrupting one-versus-one carrying that voters notice in compilation reels. The youngest Golden Ball winner on record would be a story Spain's PR department would extract every ounce of mileage from.
Erling Haaland (Norway). Norway are a dark-horse pick at best, but if they do escape the group and ride a Haaland purple patch, the goals will be eye-watering and the narrative force impossible to ignore.
Pedri (Spain). If Spain win the cerebral, midfield-controlling way, Pedri is the player who quietly accumulates the highest pass completion and the chance-creation chart, and he picks up votes from the purists who do not want a winger to win every award.
Tier 3: the long-shot value picks
Three names worth watching, in descending order of probability.
Achraf Hakimi (Morocco). The most well-rounded full-back in the world is also the captain of a Morocco side that reached the semi-finals last cycle. If they do something similar in 2026, Hakimi is the player most likely to extract individual recognition from a collective triumph.
Christian Pulisic (United States). Hosts have an inflated path through the group stage and a galvanising stadium effect in the knockouts. If the USMNT gets to the quarter-finals on Pulisic goals and assists, his name appears on every American ballot and a fair number of European ones.
Florian Wirtz (Germany). Germany's rebuild has him at the centre. He is the most pleasant player in Europe to watch when he is on, and "pleasant to watch" wins Golden Ball votes more often than spreadsheets predict.
The case for a non-attacker
The Golden Ball has gone to a non-attacking player exactly twice in the last thirty years: Zinedine Zidane in 2006 (extra-time semi-final, headbutt and all) and Luka Modrić in 2018. The structural barrier is real — defenders and number sixes generate fewer highlight clips, and highlight clips drive votes — but it is not absolute. A centre-back who carries a side to the final, especially one who scores a knockout goal, becomes a real candidate. Watch Rúben Dias, William Saliba, and Antonio Rüdiger if their nations go deep.
The Messi question
Will Lionel Messi play? The Inter Miami captain has been ambiguous in public about whether he travels with the Argentina squad to defend the trophy. If he does, and if Argentina go deep, his presence skews the ballot the way it has every tournament he has played since 2014. He won the Golden Ball as a young man with a losing team in 2014; he won it as an older man with a winning team in 2022. Anything is on the table.
Our pick (with a hedge)
Vinícius if Brazil go deep, Mbappé if France do. The two favourites for the trophy carry the two favourites for the award, and the bracket will decide which of them is standing on July 19. If you want a value pick, Bellingham is the player most likely to outperform his pre-tournament odds.
For live tournament coverage from June 11 onwards, follow Scorelisto's soccer page and the rolling blog index.
FAQ
What is the Golden Ball? The individual award given to the player voted best of the World Cup tournament. Accredited journalists cast the votes.
How is it different from the Golden Boot? The Golden Boot goes to the tournament's top scorer. The Golden Ball weighs overall impact, not just goals.
Who won it last time? Lionel Messi, at Qatar 2022, after Argentina lifted the trophy. It was his second.
Has a goalkeeper ever won it? Yes — Oliver Kahn for Germany in 2002. Tournament keepers do not usually accumulate the votes attackers do, but a knockout run packed with shoot-out heroics can swing it.
When is it awarded? Immediately after the final, alongside the Golden Boot and the Young Player award. The final is July 19 at MetLife Stadium.