Group D is the host-nation group with the most potential banana skin in the draw. The USA gets the seeding, the home venues and the schedule — but Türkiye is a Pot 2 with the best Italian-league midfielder of the last three seasons pulling strings, Paraguay is the kind of defensively disciplined Pot 3 that beats half the seeds it gets drawn against, and Australia has done this enough times now that nobody on the Socceroos roster gets surprised by anything. Two teams go through to the Round of 32. The third spot is live.
The Group at a Glance
| Team | Draw Pot | Strength | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Host (Pot 1) | Pulisic, McKennie, home crowd, depth | Centre-back rotation, head-coach scrutiny |
| Türkiye | Pot 2 | Calhanoğlu midfield, attacking variety | Defensive concentration in big moments |
| Paraguay | Pot 3 | Defensive structure, set pieces, tournament temperament | Goal-scoring against a low block |
| Australia | Pot 4 | Cohesion, work rate, Mat Ryan in goal | Lack of a clinical No. 9 |
Fixtures and Venues
The USA gets exactly the schedule a host wants — opener at home, second game in a friendly time zone, finale at one of the biggest venues in the tournament. The Socceroos and Paraguay rotate through a smaller spread of venues. None of the games are scheduled in the worst heat windows.
- Jun 12 — USA vs Paraguay · Inglewood, SoFi Stadium
- Jun 13 — Türkiye vs Australia · Houston, NRG Stadium
- Jun 18 — USA vs Türkiye · Inglewood, SoFi Stadium
- Jun 19 — Paraguay vs Australia · Kansas City, Arrowhead Stadium
- Jun 23 — USA vs Australia · Seattle, Lumen Field
- Jun 23 — Türkiye vs Paraguay · Kansas City, Arrowhead Stadium (simultaneous)
USA: Home Nation, Home Pressure
Mauricio Pochettino has had eighteen months to put a shape on this team, and the version that finished pre-tournament camp looks like the most coherent USMNT in a generation. Christian Pulisic in a free role behind the striker. Weston McKennie as the box-to-box. Tyler Adams shielding. Yunus Musah on the carry. Folarin Balogun starting, with Ricardo Pepi as the impact sub. The friendlies haven't all been pretty — there was a worrying defensive performance in the Türkiye warm-up earlier this year — but the spine is settled and the rotation has had time to work.
The centre-back question is the one that didn't get fully answered. Chris Richards is the starter, with the partner spot rotating between Cameron Carter-Vickers, Mark McKenzie and Tim Ream depending on opponent. Against Paraguay's low block on opening night it probably doesn't matter. Against Türkiye's counter eleven days later it absolutely does.
Türkiye: The Group's Most Dangerous Second Seed
Vincenzo Montella has built Türkiye into the most stylish mid-tier team in Europe. Hakan Çalhanoğlu sets the rhythm, Arda Güler operates between the lines, and the back four has been settled around Mert Müldür and Çağlar Söyüncü for the entire qualifying cycle. This is Türkiye's first World Cup since 2002, and they got there as one of the form teams in European qualifying.
The vulnerability is concentration. In the games that have gone wrong this cycle — the Hungary qualifier, the friendly loss to France — Türkiye conceded from set pieces or from one moment of central-midfield switching off, not from a structural breakdown. That is a manageable problem against Paraguay and Australia. It is a much bigger one against an opening-fifteen-minute USA crowd at SoFi on June 18.
Paraguay: First World Cup Since 2010
Paraguay's last World Cup was 2010 — the quarter-final team beaten by eventual champion Spain. The intervening fifteen years have been ugly. This cycle was the turnaround, with a defensive structure built by Gustavo Alfaro, the midfielder Diego Gómez running the engine, and the experienced Miguel Almirón providing the senior attacking outlet. They qualified out of South America fifth, ahead of Chile.
Realistic expectation is a tournament defined by results against the USA and Australia. The Türkiye game is basically free — both teams will probably treat it as a knockout — and the USA opener will be a brick-wall performance designed to grind out a draw. Paraguay's best path is to take points on the road.
Australia: Same Story, New Tournament
The Socceroos made the Round of 16 in Qatar and built the subsequent cycle around the same core: Mat Ryan in goal, Harry Souttar at centre-back, the Glasgow Rangers spine of Mooy and McGree feeding Mitch Duke up top. There is no new star to talk about, but there is also no reason to think the Socceroos won't be hard to beat. Tony Popovic continues the steady-as-she-goes work and the pre-tournament friendlies delivered the kind of low-scoring, clean-sheet results Australia have always relied on.
They'll need a result against Paraguay to make the third-place lottery. The opener with Türkiye is winnable on a good night and unlosable on most others. The USA finale is the game where, if everything has lined up right, a draw could put them through.
Prediction
- USA — Seven points: wins over Paraguay and Australia, narrow draw with Türkiye. Top of the group.
- Türkiye — Six points: wins over Australia and Paraguay, draw with USA. Comfortable second.
- Paraguay — Four points and a third-place lottery ticket. Most likely third-placed qualifier in this group.
- Australia — Three points from a Türkiye result that doesn't materialise. Exits in the group stage.
FAQ
Why is Türkiye spelled with a dot over the I? The country formally requested in 2022 that international governing bodies use the Turkish-language spelling Türkiye across all official materials, and FIFA adopted the change. The pronunciation is unchanged.
Where does the USA play its group games? All three USA fixtures are at home venues: SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for the first two, then Lumen Field in Seattle for the third. None of them require an east-coast time-zone flip for the squad.
Can Paraguay or Australia actually go through? Yes. With twelve groups and eight third-place spots, a four-point return puts you in the conversation. Paraguay is the more likely of the two on current form. Track group standings live on Scorelisto's soccer page, and see our blog index for the rest of the group-by-group previews as they post.