Group I is the kind of draw that makes the expanded 48-team format worth defending. France, one of the tournament's top favourites, drop into a section containing a Norway side powered by the world's most prolific striker, AFCON-champion Senegal, and an Iraqi team making their first World Cup appearance since 1986. Four teams. Four completely different stories. Only two can advance.
France: Deschamps goes out swinging
Didier Deschamps has confirmed this tournament will be his final chapter managing the French national team. He arrives not under the pressure of a manager fighting for his future, but with the hunger of one chasing a legacy โ he already won this trophy as a player in 1998 and as manager in 2018, and a second title as coach would cement him as one of the sport's greatest-ever tournament operators.
The squad he has assembled is, on paper, the deepest in the field. Kylian Mbappรฉ leads the attack with the urgency of a player who knows his best years at the biggest tournament are right now. Behind him, the midfield structure and defensive organisation that Deschamps has refined over a decade give this France team a balance that genuinely threatening squads often lack. They are expected to top the group with minimal drama.
Norway: Haaland and 28 years of waiting
Norway have not appeared at a World Cup since 1998. They are back now, carried in significant part by one player: Erling Haaland, who scored 16 goals in eight qualifying matches, double the tally of any other European player during the campaign. Those numbers belong in a different category entirely.
The conversation around Norway always starts with Haaland, but the side around him is more functional than often credited. Martin รdegaard runs the midfield with composure and range. Defensively, they are organised and difficult to break down. Haaland's ability to convert a half-chance means Norway only need to be in a game, not controlling it, to win. That is a dangerous proposition for Senegal on matchday two.
Senegal: AFCON champions with something to prove
Senegal arrived as reigning African Cup of Nations champions. That title came on the back of real tactical quality and physical intensity โ not luck. The squad carries experience across all positions, with Sadio Manรฉ still influential in a veteran role, and a generation of players behind him raised on his Champions League and international performances.
Their discipline, athleticism and big-match temperament place them second in the Group I pecking order on most assessments. The Opta simulation model, running 25,000 pre-tournament scenarios, gave them a 62% probability of advancing โ slightly behind Norway's 82% but comfortably above Iraq. Whether they can actually close the gap on that 82% depends on results in the key fixture.
Iraq: the emotion of a 40-year return
Iraq punched their World Cup ticket with a 2-1 win over Bolivia in April, qualifying for the first time since 1986. The celebrations that followed told the whole story โ this is a nation that waited four decades for this moment. They are not expected to progress, and the numbers support that: Opta's simulations had Iraq advancing in only 27% of scenarios.
But this group stage is about more than advancement for them; it is a statement of footballing identity. They are not here to make up the numbers tactically, either. Their goalkeeper Jalal Hassan was among the most consistent in Asian qualification, and they defended with shape and determination throughout. France and Norway will not coast.
Key fixtures and what to watch
The Group I schedule runs across three matchdays between mid-June and late June. Two matches stand out as potentially decisive:
- France vs Norway โ the headline clash of the group. A Norway win here would send shockwaves across the tournament and open the path to topping the section.
- Norway vs Senegal โ June 23, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Effectively a knockout match for second place. Whoever wins this fixture almost certainly advances; the loser must rely on the best third-place route.
Iraq's fixtures against all three opponents will test whether they can land an upset and earn a historic first World Cup win. Their best chance mathematically is the Senegal match, given the relative uncertainty in that tie.
Prediction: France and Norway to advance
France win the group. Norway's firepower โ specifically what Haaland does when given any space behind a high defensive line โ is enough to edge Senegal to second place. But this is the narrowest of margins. Senegal are a legitimate dark-horse to claim second, and if the June 23 fixture at MetLife goes their way, the standings picture changes completely.
FAQ
How many teams from each group advance? The top two from each of the 12 groups automatically reach the round of 32. The best four third-place finishers across all groups also advance, giving Senegal or Iraq a secondary pathway if they fall short of second.
When was Iraq's previous World Cup? Mexico 1986, where they lost all three group games. This 2026 appearance is their emotional return, four decades later.
How many World Cup qualifying goals did Haaland score? 16 in 8 matches โ double the total of any other European player in qualification. He enters the tournament as one of the leading Golden Boot contenders.
Where can I follow Group I live? All fixtures are covered on Scorelisto's soccer live scores page. Check the blog for daily group-stage recaps and standings updates from June 11 onwards.