Two days of rest end Thursday and the tournament resumes at a different intensity. Eight teams became four days of two-game days; the top half of the bracket plays first. Belgium and England kick off the quarter-finals at MetLife at noon Eastern in the fixture Kevin De Bruyne almost certainly did not think he would still be playing in when he signed for Napoli last summer. Germany and the Netherlands close the day at AT&T Stadium at 4 p.m. in the tie every neutral wanted the moment the bracket cleared on Tuesday. Two matches, one afternoon, a semi-final on each side of the bracket decided by nightfall.
The two ties at a glance
Belgium vs England: a generation and a wave meeting halfway
Belgium arrived in the United States labelled the last edition of a golden generation that had never quite delivered at a World Cup. Nothing they have done in five matches has changed that description, and yet here they are, one round further than any of their previous three tournaments. Kevin De Bruyne against Portugal in the R16 was the best individual midfield performance of the knockout so far — two assists, both from set-piece variations, and a pass volume that would have looked heavy in a mid-week Premier League match. Belgium sit deeper than in 2022 and counter into Romelu Lukaku's runs, which is a simpler and more effective plan than anything Roberto Martínez asked them to do.
England, meanwhile, are the team that came into the tournament split between whether the golden path was Jude Bellingham or Bukayo Saka, and answered the question in the third group game by putting both on the pitch at the same time. Thomas Tuchel has spent the fortnight quietly moving Bellingham into the left half-space, Saka into the right, and Cole Palmer into the number ten role no one had penciled him into before June. The Brazil win in the R16 was 2-0 in a way that could easily have been 4-0; England hit three balls off the woodwork.
The tactical story is set-pieces on one end, transition on the other. Belgium have scored on four dead balls in the tournament, England on three. Whichever side wins the corner-count battle probably wins the match. The two teams have never met at a World Cup at the knockout stage; the group-stage meeting in 2018 finished 1-0 to Belgium in a game neither team needed to win. This one both very much need to win.
Prediction: England 2-1. Belgium score first from a set piece, Palmer answers before half-time, Bellingham finishes the game with a run from the left. Extra time possible.
Germany vs Netherlands: the tie of the round
Germany came into the tournament rebuilt around Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz on the flanks, Joshua Kimmich shielding a back four that had not conceded from open play since March. The group stage was a 3-2 vs Ivory Coast, a 4-0 vs Curaçao, a 1-1 vs Ecuador. Against Argentina in the R16 they scored twice in eight minutes in the second half and killed a rematch of the 2014 final in 60 seconds. Germany are the highest-scoring team still in the bracket.
The Netherlands are the best-organised team still in the bracket. Ronald Koeman's side has conceded twice in five games. Virgil van Dijk is playing the tournament of a thirty-five-year-old defender who has decided this is his last chance and is refusing to be beaten in the air. Cody Gakpo has four goals in the knockouts alone. The USMNT tie on Monday was the sort of match where the Netherlands never looked frantic, never looked flustered, and were 3-0 up before the hour mark without any obvious moment where the tie tilted.
The tactical question is whether Germany can move Musiala and Wirtz between the Netherlands centre-backs and the deep holders. Frenkie de Jong is likely back in the eleven after two matches on the bench, and he is the one Dutch player who can play the number-six-to-eight bridge that neutralises the German half-space attackers. On the other end, Koeman will have Denzel Dumfries hunting Wirtz on the right side of the Dutch back four; that is a matchup the Netherlands win most nights.
The last time Germany and the Netherlands met at a World Cup in a knockout was 1990. The Netherlands won 2-1, went on to be eliminated in the R16, and both teams have carried the fixture around ever since. That match is a lifetime ago; almost none of the players in Thursday's teams were alive for it.
Prediction: Netherlands 2-1 after extra time. A tie that never leaves 1-1 in ninety, a Van Dijk header from a corner in extra time, and a Dutch semi-final for the first time since 2014.
Team news and lineups
Belgium have Amadou Onana available after a one-match ban and he will start next to Youri Tielemans; De Bruyne moves half a step further forward as a result. Jérémy Doku is fit but not in the eleven, kept as a second-half changer.
England will start Palmer at 10, Bellingham at 8, Declan Rice screening. Kyle Walker is fit and starts at right-back after rolling an ankle in the second half against Brazil. Marc Guéhi partners John Stones in the middle. Jordan Pickford in goal, unchanged from the round.
Germany will start with the same eleven that beat Argentina. Musiala on the left, Wirtz on the right, Kai Havertz through the middle, Kimmich and Robert Andrich in a double pivot, Antonio Rüdiger and Nico Schlotterbeck at centre-back. Manuel Neuer has a small quad problem and Marc-André ter Stegen may replace him if the staff decide against risking it.
Netherlands will bring De Jong back next to Tijjani Reijnders. Xavi Simons will drop half a role deeper to accommodate. Gakpo leads the line, with Memphis Depay wide left and Dumfries at right wingback. Van Dijk and Nathan Aké in the middle of the back three, Bart Verbruggen in goal.
How to watch
In the United States, Fox has the English broadcast of both matches and Telemundo the Spanish. Belgium-England kicks off at 12 p.m. ET, Germany-Netherlands at 4 p.m. In the UK, ITV has Belgium-England, BBC One has Germany-Netherlands. Follow both live on the Scorelisto soccer scoreboard or the tournament digest on the Scorelisto blog.
What is at stake beyond the semi
The top-half semi-final on July 14 is at MetLife. The winners of Thursday's two ties play there for a place in the final on July 19. For Belgium and Germany, both of whom missed the 2022 quarter-final, that would be the deepest run in a decade. For England, still short of a men's final since 1966, the pathway is now legibly plausible. For the Netherlands, playing the best football of any team in the bracket, this would be a first World Cup final since 2010.
FAQ
Why is Belgium-England the noon kickoff? FIFA slotted the earlier match to hit the European evening audience — a 5 p.m. UK / 6 p.m. Central European kickoff is the largest possible viewership window. The later match works better for the Central American audience that follows Mexico.
What happens if either quarter-final finishes level after 90 minutes? Thirty minutes of extra time, then penalties. No away goals rule (which does not apply at a World Cup anyway), no golden goal.
Are yellow-card suspensions carried into the semi-finals? Yes. Any player picking up their second yellow of the knockout stage on Thursday will miss the July 14 semi-final. Belgium's Zeno Debast and England's Declan Rice are both a booking away.
Where is the July 14 semi-final? MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The same venue hosts the final on July 19. See the full Scorelisto World Cup coverage for full fixture list and running results.